As the referendum approaches its possible that on friday the headlines will read “Disunited Kingdom”.

Until recently markets have ignored the possibility of independence as the No cohort has generally been ahead in the polls. The possiblity existis that even a narrow victory for the No campaign will increase the likelihood for a further vote down the line.

Markets have to contemplate the financial consequences as sterling reaches five months below the dollar. While the Yes campaign believes it will maintain use of the pound, many Westminster parties say this is out of the question, after seeing the pitfalls of the euro this could be unlikely.

Another issue is the portioning of national debt and how this will be divided. By population? By GDP? Rating agencies have predicted that Scotland’s credit rating would be lower requiring higher yields at around 4%.

Scotland is also responsible for 59 of 650 MPs, 40 of which are Labour, if in 2010 Scotland had not been included the Conservatives would have had an overall majority, so, no coalition. If Scotland vote no it’s more likely we will see Labour win in the upcoming election in 2015.

The market reaction to independence would likely be to sell Sterling, Government bonds would also likely weaken.  In banking, after the takeovers of the last decade, most of Britains biggest banks are Scottish based.  For depositors this could mean holding money in a foreign bank, though many may, and are already making steps towards moving shop to London.

Businesses operating on both sides of the border will be taking either decision very seriously as change is inevitable.